Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
